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Satellite image of Tropical Depression Marilyn as of September 12, 2019, 4:30 pm. Image from NOAA
MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Marilyn is expected to continue bringing scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms to the whole country in the next several hours.
In a briefing past 5 pm on Thursday, September 12, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Marilyn is already 1,260 kilometers east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora, or 1,285 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan.
It is moving west northwest at the same speed of 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).
The tropical depression still has maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. But it could intensify into a tropical storm within 48 hours, while inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
There are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals and Marilyn is unlikely to make landfall.
But PAGASA Weather Specialist Ariel Rojas explained that due to the tropical depression’s wide and elongated circulation, it is causing rain in the country.
“Bagama’t nasa gitna po ng karagatan si Tropical Depression Marilyn…napakalawak po ng kanyang sirkulasyon kaya’t umaabot po ‘yung mga pag-ulan dito sa malaking bahagi ng ating bansa,” Rojas said in the briefing.
(Though Tropical Depression Marilyn is over the middle of the sea…it has a very broad circulation which is why the rain is reaching much of the country.)
The rain is light to moderate, but could be occasionally heavy.
PAGASA warned that flash floods and landslides are possible. (READ: )
Travel is also risky, especially for small seacraft, in the central and eastern seaboards of the Visayas and the seaboards of Mindanao.
Based on Marilyn’s latest forecast track, it will leave PAR on Sunday, September 15.
Forecast track of Tropical Depression Marilyn as of September 12, 2019, 5 pm. Image from PAGASA
Marilyn is the Philippines’ 13th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 3rd in September. (READ: )
The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.
Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from September to December:
- September – 2 to 4
- October – 2 or 3
- November – 1 or 2
- December – 0 or 1
PAGASA declared the start of the last June 14. – Rappler.com